Trump won the Presidency in 2016. Since then he has either been a great president or a terrible one. He has captivated audiences, caused diplomatic incidents, and almost caused nuclear Armageddon via Twitter.
Trump will be re-elected in 2020 because of a multitude of factors- including the booming economy, his current job position, his experience, his base, his placating to the people and the electoral college.
The economy
At the moment the economy is booming. Although most people don’t have an intricate knowledge of economics, it’s not always about how the economy is really doing, so most of the people who vote ‘based on the economy’ are really voting based on their own feelings . Asking themselves- do I feel richer? Am I getting paid more? Do I feel confident with my future?
Which means that the majority of the conversations about the economy are about messaging- and what and how the Whites House talk about it. And as we all know- when corporations make more money so do their employees. Many people (thanks to the messaging by the White House) are confident in the state of the economy- with many people going as far to say that it is all down to Trump.
Trump is the incumbent
Trump is the incumbent president- so he has experience which no other contender has (the closest is Joe Biden who was Vice-President under Obama). People know his name- not just that he is a businessman but he is POTUS. He also has the experience in getting things done… in a rather unpresidential way.
Out of the past ten Presidents who ran for re-election, the incumbent president was re-elected 7 times (or a 70% success rate). This is thanks to their prior experience, name recognition and their existing donor structure.
Trump and his experience
It’s no secret that Trump is a master of messaging. Even after taking office as the President, he continued to host rallies and gatherings- much more than any president before him. He is also a master of getting control of the media cycle- just look at CNN…
It was thanks to his ability to control the media that he won out against the Clinton campaign in 2016. And this was arguably attributed to his better ran campaign and his name- where Trump used his own private 757 (affectionately called ‘Trump Force One’), the Clinton campaign used a borrowed 737 as their campaign aircraft.
Trump’s base
Many Religious groups backed Trump in the 2016 election. Many of his actions seem to have gone against traditional religious ideas, he is working on achieving the wishes of many religious groups- mainly abortion.
Doing this by repealing Rowe vs Wade and appointing two staunchly anti-abortion judges to the Supreme Court in the form of Kavanaugh and Gorsuch. With Trump going as far to say that he will appoint more conservative judges to the Supreme Court if/when the opportunity arises.
Trump has likely also helped keep traditional Republicans on his side. He may not be what they are looking for- but he is better than the democratic alternatives. Whilst they may disagree with his Twitter rants and surprising support of foreign dictators, they do like his tax cuts. And his staunch opposition to the recent socialist storm in the Democrat Party.
Trump’s placating to the people
Arguably why he got the presidency in the first place was due to Trumps message “To make America great again!” He used the fear of foreigners (especially Mexicans and other Latinos) to get his ‘Border Wall’. As well as his nationalist tendencies that made many vote for him.
There is also the case of ‘Draining the Swamp’ which he claimed he could do. This is to keep Mosquito populations down and therefore Malaria levels. Neither his Border Wall nor Draining the swamp has come into being as of yet.